CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SUN 12/12 - 06Z MON 13/12 2004
ISSUED: 11/12 20:02Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across central and western Mediterranean Sea.

SYNOPSIS

Not much of a change expected on Sunday ... except that central-European upper high will weaken some as indicated by model data ... with low geopotential peristing across the central and W Mediterranean. Large SFC high expected to remain in place ... covering most of the Europe continent.

DISCUSSION

...central and western Mediterranean...
Scattered TSTMS should continue in weakly unstable air mass over the central and W Mediterranean Sea ... shear profiles appear to be too weak to support organized severe TSTMS ... though a waterspout or two may cannot be excluded.

Otherwise ... deep convection is unlikely.

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